A terrific resource is the data provided by Philippe Fournier on 338Canada.com . The data is generated with an algorithm that includes aggregated polling data and historic information, and it is updated regularly for every Federal, Provincial and Territorial electoral district in Canada. Notes: It is very important to check the site frequently to ensure you consider the most recent polling data. Click here to read an excellent article from The Walrus that provides more detailed insight into Philippe Fournier and the data analysis he does for 338Canada.
What does polling data reveal?
Historic Trends
The projected federal popular vote broken down by Party since late 2021 are shown in the graph below.
What stands out is the jump in the lead the projected popular vote for the CPC around July 2023 and the increase since then, while during that same period the support for the LPC has been in decline. As of November 17, 2024 the popular vote projection for the CPC was 42%, with LPC at 24%, NDP at 18%, BQ at 8%, and GPC at 4%. It is worth noting that the combined projected votes of the LPC, NDP and GPC totals 46%, which is greater than the 42% for the CPC.
A major flaw in our first-past-the-post voting system is revealed in the Seat Projections (shown to the right of the graph above): If a federal election was held anytime soon, the CPC were projected to win 214 seats – a very large majority – despite the fact they are not supported by the majority of Canadians. The LPC, NDP and GPC would win a combined total of just 85 seats (LPC: 66, NDP: 17, GPC: 2) while the BQ would win 44.
Note: For a majority government, the governing party requires more than half of the seats in the House of Commons, or 172 seats. Read more here.
Opportunities to Cooperate: Polling Analysis
Data from 338Canada can be used to help identify Electoral Districts or Ridings where there is an opportunity for progressives to cooperate – Ridings where the Conservatives are vulnerable. This type of analysis is equally effective for all levels: federal, provincial, territorial, etc. The steps outlined below explain how to access and complete the data analysis. Starting from the 338Canada home page:
- For Federal Ridings: click on ‘Electoral districts‘ in the menu bar. A dropdown menu will open (the gold coloured box in the image below). Select ‘All 343 electoral districts‘ to see a complete list, or choose one of the Regions (indicated using the red arrows below).
- For Provincial Ridings or others, click on ‘CHOOSE YOUR REGION‘, then select your province (or other region) from the dropdown menu (indicated with the blue arrows below).
A new window will open. Scroll down the page to see the List of Electoral Districts (Ridings). A partial list of Federal Ridings is shown in the image below. Each Riding in the list has:
- the name of the Riding sorted alphabetically (for the Federal list, Ridings are sorted by Province east to west, then alphabetically)
- the Party currently elected (using the Party symbol)
- a projection for which party is currently most likely to win the seat, based on their analysis of most recent data (projections are rated: Safe, Likely, Leaning or Toss up)
- the cell is colour-coded according to which party is projected to win
To view detailed polling data for an individual RIding, click on the name in the list (indicated with the circled 1 and 2 in the image). A new window will open with this data. The data is presented with bar graphs and shows the Projected Popular Vote (%) and the Probability of Winning (%) for each Party.
Analysis of the data reveals where opportunities for cooperation exist. It is important to note that polling data changes. (Updates to the data on 338Canada are frequent, often weekly). The most recent data should be considered when deciding which Candidate to support – as news and events transpire, the Party which is most likely to win can change. It is not always one certain Party’s candidate that is projected to win. This is illustrated in the sample analysis shown below for several Federal Ridings.
Waterloo (Federal):
Edmonton-Griesbach:
Saanich-Gulf Islands:
Chicoutimi-Le Fjord:
Opportunities for Groups of Ridings to Cooperate
Cooperation is also possible when a group of ridings within a geographic region work together. For example, consider two adjacent Ridings: one where the NDP Candidate has the best opportunity to defeat the CPC candidate, and the LPC Candidate has the best opportunity to win in the other. Cooperation could involve the identification of a Unity Candidate for each Riding – it would make sense that the Liberal Candidate would be selected in the Riding where they are favoured and the NDP Candidate in the other. Even if a Unity Candidate is not identified, cooperation in both Ridings would involve the LPC Leadership, Riding Associations and supporters providing support through donations, funding, volunteers, canvassing and other resources in the Riding where the LPC Candidate has the best chance to win. For both Ridings the NDP Leadership, Riding Associations and supporters would provide support only in the Riding where the NDP Candidate has the best chance to win. The cooperative approach benefits both Parties. Without cooperation, vote splitting between the LPC and NDP risks the result that the Conservatives win the seats for both RIdings. With cooperation, the vote splitting would be minimized or prevented, and the LPC and NDP would each win one seat (and the Conservatives would win zero!).
Another helpful tool to view polling data that is helpful to find opportunities for cooperation in a geographic area is the interactive 338Canada ‘Federal Map‘. The link is located in the main navigation menu (Note: this map is best viewed on a desktop or tablet. It takes ~50MB of memory so may be slow to load). You are able to move around the map and view RIdings across Canada, zoom in and out and view the polling data for each Riding fairly quickly. The data pops up as your cursor hovers over each Riding.
Summary
Cooperation is a viable strategy that has been used successfully in the past, and it can be very effective in Canada for upcoming elections. Until we change our first-past-the -post voting system, cooperation can prevent splitting the votes of the centre left and result in the formation of governments that reflect our values and priorities.
The urgency of the polycrises we face is an emergency-level situation. We need an emergency-level response. We simply can’t afford to wait four years or more to take action. A ‘business as usual’ approach will not work. The differences in policies between the centre left Parties are very small compared to the policies of the Conservatives. It is time for people and Parties on the centre left to work cooperatively, instead of arguing about small differences and competing against each other. Let’s put the best interests of future generations ahead of partisan politics.
Cooperation between the centre left parties can help us overcome the flawed first-past-the-post system.
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